Apobank economist Bjorn Oel said in a note he expects the ECB to raise rates by
25bp this week and again in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.5%. Since
March the euro-area inflation outlook has deteriorated markedly amid the Iran
war and higher energy prices. Apobank expects those two hikes will be reversed,
with the deposit rate cut in two steps from 2.5% to 2.0% in 1H 2027, citing an
anticipated resolution of the US‑Iran conflict, an economic slowdown and
inflation returning to the 2% target.
