Commerzbank analyst Tatha Ghose said the ruble's recent strength—driven by
higher energy prices amid Iran-related tensions and a near-term lift to Russia's
oil and gas revenues—is unlikely to persist. Ghose expects energy prices could
fall by year-end and says refinery damage from Ukrainian strikes, together with
renewed US sanctions, will probably prevent Russia from exploiting OPEC+'s
expanded production quotas in the medium term. Once the oil-price windfall
fades, she expects the ruble to resume depreciation.
