Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities says Ueda is unlikely to signal a hawkish surprise beyond what markets have priced at next week’s press conference. The firm's economists and strategists note OIS markets have largely priced BOJ policy to 1.25% by year-end. The report cites rising Middle East uncertainty and recent equity volatility and expects a 25bp policy-rate hike to 1.00% at the June meeting.

2026-06-09

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities says Ueda is unlikely to signal a hawkish surprise beyond what markets have priced at next week’s press conference. The firm's economists and strategists note OIS markets have largely priced BOJ policy to 1.25% by year-end. The report cites rising Middle East uncertainty and recent equity volatility and expects a 25bp policy-rate hike to 1.00% at the June meeting.

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