高盛：预计世界杯将让美国第二季度GDP增幅上升0.1个百分点，第三季度上升0.05个百分点，第四季度小幅回落。

EIA now expects global oil demand to decline in 2026, reversing its prior forecast of modest growth.

The New York Times reports US and Iranian officials have a tentative framework for a nuclear deal that US aides say would stall Iran’s nuclear programme for roughly 15 years, contingent on the IRGC and hardliners not ousting Iran’s chief negotiator or derailing planned deeper talks in Switzerland this summer. Four principal items under discussion: 1) Long pause to uranium enrichment — US sought ≥20 years, Iran proposed 10 years, US officials say Iran may accept ~15 years. 2) Dilution of Iran’s existing enriched‑uranium stockpile — US would work with the IAEA; Iran says the US would be limited to observer status. 3) Dismantling nuclear facilities — US seeks removal of Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan; Iran has discussed dismantling two sites but insists on retaining one to demonstrate an asserted right to enrichment, a potential sticking point. 4) Acceptance of snap inspections — US seeks IAEA ability to carry out unannounced inspections anywhere in Iran; Iran’s willingness is unclear.