CITIC Securities research note said markets underappreciate near- and mid-term
upside risk to oil. Near term, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for weeks
and more wells have been forced offline; prolonged outages risk permanent
capacity loss. Over the medium term, low capex has pushed US
drilled‑but‑uncompleted inventories and new drilling to multi‑year lows, making
sustained US high output unlikely and shifting residual supply and pricing power
toward Middle East producers. Markets were overly optimistic on a quick end to
the Middle East conflict; forward oil is being repriced higher and potential
upside to inflation merits monitoring.