1. Goldman Sachs
- FOMC expected to leave funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%.
- Three dissents expected in favor of a 25bp cut: Governors Bowman, Miran, and
Waller.
- Two additional rate cuts now forecast for September and December.
- Terminal rate forecast at 3–3.25%, with probability-weighted Fed outlook more
dovish than baseline.
2. Standard Chartered
- FOMC likely to defer action until output vs. price effects are clearer.
- Hawkish risks: core PCE, fed funds projections, and potential dissents.
3. J.P. Morgan
- Unchanged funds rate of 3.50–3.75% widely expected.
- Median dot from December forecast one 25bp cut this year.
- Close call between no cuts or one cut for 2026; lean slightly toward one cut.
- Subsequent years projected to gradually drift down toward neutral.
- J.P. Morgan’s own forecast: no cuts this year.
4. Deutsche Bank
- Average probability of no change: 89%. Confidence varies: fixed income 96%,
research 94%, traders 93%, portfolio managers 85%.
- Dot plot expected to show unchanged median projection: 3.4% for 2026, 3.0%
long-run.
- Notable hawkish skew: 36% expect 2026 median >3.4%, 25% expect long-run dot
higher.
5. BofA
- Powell likely to adopt "wait & see" approach in response to oil shock.
- US rates & USD likely little impacted by March FOMC.
- Rates view: receive M8, steeper 5s30s, long 5Y real.
6. ANZ
- FOMC expected to leave funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%.
- Decision likely non-unanimous, with some members dissenting in favor of a cut
due to monetary policy pressures on the labor market.
