Federal Reserve officials meet this week with markets questioning not when rates will be cut, but whether the Fed can credibly signal cuts at all, writes Nick Timiraos. The war likely reinforces holding rates steady. Key focus areas: the policy statement, where language hinting at future cuts may be dropped; quarterly projections, with traders expecting 0–2 cuts in 2026; and the post-meeting press conference, where Chair Jerome Powell can clarify or soften signals. Supply shocks have kept inflat

Federal Reserve officials meet this week with markets questioning not when rates will be cut, but whether the Fed can credibly signal cuts at all, writes Nick Timiraos. The war likely reinforces holding rates steady. Key focus areas: the policy statement, where language hinting at future cuts may be dropped; quarterly projections, with traders expecting 0–2 cuts in 2026; and the post-meeting press conference, where Chair Jerome Powell can clarify or soften signals. Supply shocks have kept inflation above target for five years, complicating rate guidance.