Major US banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs, raised China’s 2026 inflation forecasts and delayed expected rate cuts as Iran-driven oil price spikes increase costs. BofA dropped its call for two 20-basis-point cuts; Citi now expects a single 10-basis-point reduction in H2. Economists see a “wait‑and‑see” stance, ready to act if demand weakens or financial conditions tighten. Markets reflect this caution, with traders scaling back easing bets and China’s 30-year governm

Major US banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs, raised China’s 2026 inflation forecasts and delayed expected rate cuts as Iran-driven oil price spikes increase costs. BofA dropped its call for two 20-basis-point cuts; Citi now expects a single 10-basis-point reduction in H2. Economists see a “wait‑and‑see” stance, ready to act if demand weakens or financial conditions tighten. Markets reflect this caution, with traders scaling back easing bets and China’s 30-year government bond yield hitting an 18-month high last week.