Hedge fund demand for USD/JPY put options surged after the pair moved above 160, with May put volumes more than triple calls, signaling positioning for a potential drop amid intervention risks. The yen hit its weakest since July 2024, prompting warnings from Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. Activity is focused on short-dated options, reflecting near-term event risk. Rising oil prices and safe-haven demand for the dollar have pressured the yen, d

- U.S. equity futures traded higher on Monday after President Donald Trump offered investors hope that an end to the war against Iran is drawing near. - “The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social - Trump said on Sunday that Tehran had accepted most of the U.S.′ 15-point plan to end the war and that Iran has agreed to allow an additional 20 oil ships cross the Strait. - The market will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday, although the March jobs report is still scheduled for release that morning. - Aluminum spiked on Monday after Iranian strikes disrupted key Middle East production facilities over the weekend, with investors bracing for further supply and logistics constraints. - Brent crude has soared more than 55% in March, putting the benchmark on track for its steepest monthly rise on record. - Trump said he could “take the oil in Iran” and seize Iran’s export hub of Kharg Island, as hostilities in the Middle East continue for a fifth week. - Asia-Pacific markets fell sharply on Monday as the Middle East war entered its fifth week, with the conflict escalating despite efforts aimed at finding a diplomatic solution.

美联储主席鲍威尔：劳动力市场面临长期性、趋势性力量的挑战。