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货币市场定价显示，欧洲央行在四月加息的概率为50%，而上周五约为20%。

Brent crude rose above $103 a barrel after weekend US–Iran talks failed, with escalation fears over a planned US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Onyx Capital Group Managing Director Jorge Montepeque. He said current prices do not reflect potential disruption and argued oil could rise to $140–$150 if the blockade is fully implemented. The proposed measure would restrict vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports and could escalate the conflict into a global energy shock, with potential supply losses of up to 12 million barrels per day. Montepeque said traders have so far seen limited price reaction due to skepticism that both sides of the strait would be fully closed, though Brent still jumped about 8% to above $103, and could remain near $100 for the rest of the year if tensions ease.