ALPHABET: STIFEL CUTS TARGET PRICE TO $387 FROM $395

Geopolitics & Iran Conflict • Talks between the United States and Iran failed to reach a resolution over ending the war, Vice President JD Vance announced after more than 20 hours of negotiations • Trump says US will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran talks end without a deal • US military says it will begin naval blockade in Strait of Hormuz at 10 a.m. ET Monday • Iran Foreign Minister said that talks with the United States stalled after Iran encountered “maximalism” and “shifting goalposts.” • Tehran has vowed to retaliate against any military vessels in the strait • Iran's Revolutionary Guard issues dire warning to military ships nearing Strait of Hormuz • Iranian officials said they resisted three “unreasonable demands” from the US during negotiations • Regional officials familiar said diplomatic channels between the US and Iran remain open, with a second round of talks possible within days • Sources said Iran is not in a hurry to resume negotiations with the US • Iran’s parliament is advancing a new proposal to ban fleets from “hostile countries” from transiting the Strait of Hormuz • Iranian media reported that two US vessels attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz but were forced to retreat • The UK will not join any Trump blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Energy & Commodities • An Iranian oil ministry official said damaged refineries are expected to restore at least 70% of prior capacity within one to two months • Spot gold and silver opened lower Monday, with gold down $70 to $4,673/oz and silver falling more than 3% • International crude surged at the open, with WTI rising 9.4% to $104.54 a barrel Trade & Policy • Trump said the US will not allow Iran to profit from oil sales Global Politics • Hungary’s Viktor Orban, an ally of Trump and Putin, conceded to Magyar’s Tisza after projections showed the opposition winning a two-thirds majority Corporate & China • JD.com denied entering the ride-hailing sector, saying it is testing a new project set to launch on April 13

JP MORGAN FORECASTS A 1.9 MMT PRIMARY ALUMINIUM DEFICIT IN 2026, DRIVEN BY A 2.4 MMT HIT TO MIDDLE EAST SUPPLY