The breakdown in U.S.–Iran negotiations over the weekend is notable but not the key driver for markets, according to ING rates strategists. They argue that regional wars matter less than the ability to ensure physical flows of goods and energy. “What matters is the ability to get stuff done, and to get hands on stuff,” they say. They note that control of the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from Iran to the U.S., which they view as a more market-friendly outcome on expectations of eventual full and

The breakdown in U.S.–Iran negotiations over the weekend is notable but not the key driver for markets, according to ING rates strategists. They argue that regional wars matter less than the ability to ensure physical flows of goods and energy. “What matters is the ability to get stuff done, and to get hands on stuff,” they say. They note that control of the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from Iran to the U.S., which they view as a more market-friendly outcome on expectations of eventual full and unrestricted reopening of the route.