Danske Bank
- April decision: Hold rates unchanged (in line with consensus and pricing)
- Policy path: First cut expected in September (earlier than market pricing)
- Forward guidance: Unlikely to provide firm signals yet
- Other considerations:
· Possible final meeting for Powell as Chair; may clarify post-chair plans
(Board term to Jan 2028)
· Likely to reaffirm slower T-bill purchase pace after April
- Market bias: Risks tilted toward lower UST yields and weaker USD if easing
remains on the table
ING
- April decision: Hold rates unchanged
- Macro backdrop: Growth continues but faces headwinds; energy costs pushing
inflation higher
- Market pricing: Minimal expectations for April; ~10bp easing priced by
year-end
- Policy path: Two cuts in 2026 (September, December)
- Fed projections: One 25bp cut (March projections)
- Focus: Powell press conference (potentially final as Chair), including legacy
and future role
ANZ
- April decision: Hold at 3.50–3.75%
- Policy stance: Patient; waiting for:
· Clear disinflation progress
· Tariff effects to fade
- Risks: Middle East conflict, elevated energy prices
- Policy path: Cuts resume in Q3 (likely September)
- Inflation view: Gradual disinflation supported by moderating wages, margin
compression, anchored expectations
J.P. Morgan
- April decision: Hold rates
- Policy path (base case):
· No cuts in 2026
· 25bp hike in Q3 2027
- Conditionality: Cuts possible if:
· Labor market weakens materially
· Energy-driven economic drag intensifies
Morgan Stanley
- April decision: (Implicit) No urgency to move; focus on underlying inflation
dynamics
- Policy path: Rate cuts in 2026 despite oil-driven inflation
- Core view:
· Headline inflation distorted by energy
· Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored
- Framework: Fed likely to look through energy shocks if core disinflation trend
persists
- Assumption: Limited pass-through from oil to core inflation
