South Korea and Taiwan’s AI-driven semiconductor booms are expected to significantly expand trade surpluses and may force central banks to raise interest rates later this year, according to Goldman Sachs economists led by Andrew Tilton. The bank now forecasts two 25-basis-point hikes in South Korea in the third and fourth quarters, and two 12.5-basis-point increases in Taiwan in the second and fourth quarters. AI-related exports could rise to nearly 30% of Korea’s GDP and above 30% in Taiwan, wh

South Korea and Taiwan’s AI-driven semiconductor booms are expected to significantly expand trade surpluses and may force central banks to raise interest rates later this year, according to Goldman Sachs economists led by Andrew Tilton. The bank now forecasts two 25-basis-point hikes in South Korea in the third and fourth quarters, and two 12.5-basis-point increases in Taiwan in the second and fourth quarters. AI-related exports could rise to nearly 30% of Korea’s GDP and above 30% in Taiwan, while non-tech exports remain weak due to regional oversupply and energy shocks. The rapid, uneven growth is also raising policy challenges, even as some analysts, including Morgan Stanley’s Chetan Ahya, point to an emerging Asia-wide industrial super-cycle driven by AI investment.