由于中东冲突，联合国将2026年全球经济增长预测从2.7%下调至2.5%；将2027年全球经济增长预测下调至2.8%，此前为2.9%。

A senior Pentagon official declined to say whether the Trump administration would seek congressional authorization before restarting military operations against Iran or whether deploying US ground forces remains under consideration. Daniel Zimmerman, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told lawmakers President Donald Trump “retains the options at his disposal” and said decisions on offensive combat operations are “the president’s to make.” Zimmerman added that negotiations are underway “to try to achieve a long-term solution.” Trump said earlier that renewed military operations against Iran were “an hour away” before he halted them after talks with Gulf leaders.

花旗：如果霍尔木兹海峡在2027年初仍关闭，1970年代的石油冲击可能会重演。