市场说要加息，大行说不会，还在堵“美联储不敢”？那你很可能错过正在发生的巨变。一文搞清楚"降息一定来"的隐含假设会带来什么风险！

欧元区3月季调后经常帐 149亿欧元，前值248.74亿欧元。

Global crude and fuel inventories are shrinking at a record pace this month as the Middle East war disrupts supplies, Goldman Sachs said. Visible stockpiles have fallen by 8.7 million barrels a day so far in May, nearly double the average pace since the conflict began, driven largely by reduced exports through the Strait of Hormuz, where flows remain at about 5% of normal levels. Goldman said about two-thirds of the decline came from lower oil-on-water inventories as exports fell faster than imports. The bank also noted weakening demand, particularly in China, where refinery imports and fuel sales dropped sharply, while Europe’s jet fuel imports were running 60% below 2025 averages. Brent crude traded near $106 a barrel, up more than 70% this year but below the war-era peak above $126.