Ukraine’s General Staff said on the 28th that Ukrainian forces attacked the Tuapse refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai. The General Staff said the strike occurred overnight on the 27th. The refinery caught fire and produced heavy smoke; damage is being assessed. Tuapse is one of Russia’s largest southern refineries, with roughly 12 mln tonnes per year refining capacity.

U.S. strikes on Iran pushed oil prices up more than 2.5%. In early European trade, July Brent rose 2.6% to $96.74/bbl and July WTI rose 2.6% to $90.95/bbl. ANZ analysts said traders are increasingly cautious about holding long oil positions until there are signs of de-escalation; supply remains constrained and key issues are unresolved. With disruptions having driven inventories sharply lower, market participants are awaiting U.S. EIA weekly stock data due Thursday evening.

GOOLSBEE warned that Asia is facing a conventional stagflation shock.