Italy May harmonized CPI (HICP) preliminary YoY 3.3% vs 3.2% expected; April 2.8%.

France May harmonized CPI YoY 2.8%, up from 2.5% in April and slightly below the 2.9% consensus; rise driven by energy costs from the Middle East conflict, supporting expectations for an ECB rate move in June. The print opens a week of major eurozone inflation releases; markets expect price pressures to intensify in Spain and Italy, to ease slightly in Germany, but remain well above the ECB’s 2% target across member states. Eurozone aggregate inflation due next week is forecast to climb above April’s >3% level. Since Trump launched military action against Iran three months ago, ECB officials from hawk Isabel Schnabel to dovish chief economist Philip Lane have signalled a possible need to tighten; April’s meeting held policy steady but minutes said some second‑round effects were “inevitable,” with debate focused on their scope, intensity, timing and persistence.

Spins data show sharp Memorial Day weekend price moves: beef hot dogs +18.3% YoY, fresh ground beef nearly +15% YoY, soda +11.4% and barbecue sauce +11.6%. US CPI at-home food rose 0.7% MoM in April, the biggest monthly increase in almost four years. Walmart CFO Reni says low-income consumers are tightening budgets. California Polytechnic State University professor Richard Walpe says part of the rise is a short-term shock from the Iran conflict and a Strait of Hormuz closure; even if the conflict were resolved immediately, he warns ripple effects could affect the food system through late summer and fall and may persist for some items, including animal protein, into 2027.