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Refinitiv survey of economists shows the ECB is expected to raise the deposit rate to 2.25% at its June 11 meeting, with a further increase possible in September. Policymakers are weighing energy-driven inflation against a slowing economy: May headline inflation was 3.2%, above the ECB’s 3.0% target, while core inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.5%, suggesting the Iran conflict is lifting prices. Recent PMIs and official data point to economic slowdown; the conflict has now run more than three months and the Strait of Hormuz remains severely congested, a factor that could worsen inflation and supply risks. Most policymakers view a June hike as inevitable and say a peace deal would likely not stop it, but economists caution that weak activity, a softening labour market and policy rates already high versus the 2022 inflation shock argue against aggressive further tightening.

On June 2 local time, Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said in a statement that claims by a US-led Palestinian Gaza peace committee that Hamas refuses to hand over governance are false and intended to justify Israeli operations in Gaza. He said Hamas is prepared to transfer all governance authority to the previously agreed Palestinian technocratic committee, and that obstacles to the committee’s work mainly stem from Israel.