Boston Fed research, reported by Axios, finds an Iran-scale oil shock would materially boost inflation but have negligible effect on national employment. Researchers estimate a US–Iran conflict could lift oil prices about 33%—historically large but not unprecedented—and say the modern US economy is structurally better able to absorb that shock with far less employment damage than in the 1970s. They conclude that if energy supply disruptions pose limited employment risk, the Fed’s policy challeng

Boston Fed research, reported by Axios, finds an Iran-scale oil shock would materially boost inflation but have negligible effect on national employment. Researchers estimate a US–Iran conflict could lift oil prices about 33%—historically large but not unprecedented—and say the modern US economy is structurally better able to absorb that shock with far less employment damage than in the 1970s. They conclude that if energy supply disruptions pose limited employment risk, the Fed’s policy challenge shifts from managing stagflation to preventing renewed price pressures.