US May nonfarm payrolls +172k vs consensus 85k. Mar–Apr payrolls revised up a combined 93k, reversing prior downgrades. Three-month employment gain is the strongest in over two years; hiring breadth widened, with both new hires and rehires contributing and payrolls surpassing the employment-growth breakeven. Market pricing: markets are now fully pricing a 25bp Fed rate hike by year-end. Market comment: the print removes the near-term case for Fed cuts; officials arguing for cuts would look out o

2026-06-05

US May nonfarm payrolls +172k vs consensus 85k. Mar–Apr payrolls revised up a combined 93k, reversing prior downgrades. Three-month employment gain is the strongest in over two years; hiring breadth widened, with both new hires and rehires contributing and payrolls surpassing the employment-growth breakeven. Market pricing: markets are now fully pricing a 25bp Fed rate hike by year-end. Market comment: the print removes the near-term case for Fed cuts; officials arguing for cuts would look out of step, and a few more prints like this could warrant multiple hikes.