SEB economists Pia Fromet and Markus Weiden say the ECB could raise its policy rate by 25bps at Thursday’s meeting. Rising energy prices present upside inflation risk and may prompt a pre-emptive move because indirect and second‑round effects have not yet appeared in the data. They expect LAGARDE to spend substantial time at the press conference on updated staff forecasts and risk assessment. Elevated uncertainty will be the focal point, supporting a wait‑and‑see bias thereafter, and the ECB is

SEB economists Pia Fromet and Markus Weiden say the ECB could raise its policy rate by 25bps at Thursday’s meeting. Rising energy prices present upside inflation risk and may prompt a pre-emptive move because indirect and second‑round effects have not yet appeared in the data. They expect LAGARDE to spend substantial time at the press conference on updated staff forecasts and risk assessment. Elevated uncertainty will be the focal point, supporting a wait‑and‑see bias thereafter, and the ECB is unlikely to pre‑commit to further hikes.