Reciprocal Israeli and Iranian strikes have undermined prospects for broader
regional peace and increased risk to fragile ceasefire arrangements,
complicating efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump is
reportedly seeking a memorandum with Iran to reopen the strait, but talks remain
stalled over Iran’s nuclear program and demands over access to frozen funds.
Mitsubishi UFJ analysts say the escalation makes a wider peace deal harder to
achieve; Saxo Bank warns durable peace is increasingly elusive and that a
near-closure of the Strait would keep acute pressure on global energy markets,
with major oil companies warning physical supply shortages could emerge in weeks
rather than months.
