CSC Financial says the probability of a Fed rate hike is low in the near term; market worries about Fed tightening are largely expectation-driven and rest on assumptions of persistent US inflation and a hot labor market. CME FedWatch shows markets begin pricing a high probability of Fed hikes from late October 2026. Current global liquidity tightening and market adjustments largely reflect an early reaction to Q4 Fed-hike expectations. For China’s bond market, higher Fed-tightening expectations

CSC Financial says the probability of a Fed rate hike is low in the near term; market worries about Fed tightening are largely expectation-driven and rest on assumptions of persistent US inflation and a hot labor market. CME FedWatch shows markets begin pricing a high probability of Fed hikes from late October 2026. Current global liquidity tightening and market adjustments largely reflect an early reaction to Q4 Fed-hike expectations. For China’s bond market, higher Fed-tightening expectations are not necessarily negative: the market is relatively independent with limited linkage to US Treasuries, and ample domestic liquidity means anticipated overseas liquidity tightening and equity weakness could drive flows into domestic bonds, supporting long-end yields. CSC expects the 10-year China government bond yield to trade around 1.70%; a break below 1.70% would require fresh domestic incremental information.