China May PPI YoY 3.9% vs expected 3.8%; April 2.8%.

Market consensus is for the Bank of Canada to hold rates at the upcoming decision. Goldman expects a hold, balancing weak domestic activity against Iran-related inflationary pressure, and says the statement will likely stress the bank is "ready to act as needed" if inflation persists. JPMorgan flags a mild dovish risk to the Canadian dollar and prefers short USD/CAD positioning. Wells Fargo is an outlier, forecasting a July hike and another increase in Q4, viewing the near-term policy path as biased higher. BMO and RBC judge rates will likely remain unchanged through 2027 absent a year-end pickup in growth and employment. CIBC and Scotiabank see the economy too weak to support hikes; CIBC notes a 2026 cut could become the most likely outcome if Canada-US trade talks go poorly. BMO adds that sustained oil-price declines would increase the case for cuts next year. BBH expects the BoC to keep two-way policy options and views market pricing of >50bps of tightening over 12 months as too high. RSM warns a persistent energy-price shock could force a BoC hike this autumn. Centurion says two consecutive quarters of GDP decline are unlikely to change the bank’s hawkish rhetoric aimed at anchoring inflation expectations.

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