NBS Urban Department chief statistician Dong Lijuan said May 2026 CPI fell 0.1% MoM and rose 1.2% YoY; core CPI excluding food and energy rose 1.1% YoY. Producer prices (PPI) rose 0.5% MoM and 3.9% YoY, driven by firmer domestic industrial demand and pass-through from international commodity price volatility.

路透调查：预计日本央行将在第四季度将利率提高至1.25%（与5月份的调查结果一致）。

Market consensus is for the Bank of Canada to hold rates at the upcoming decision. Goldman expects a hold, balancing weak domestic activity against Iran-related inflationary pressure, and says the statement will likely stress the bank is "ready to act as needed" if inflation persists. JPMorgan flags a mild dovish risk to the Canadian dollar and prefers short USD/CAD positioning. Wells Fargo is an outlier, forecasting a July hike and another increase in Q4, viewing the near-term policy path as biased higher. BMO and RBC judge rates will likely remain unchanged through 2027 absent a year-end pickup in growth and employment. CIBC and Scotiabank see the economy too weak to support hikes; CIBC notes a 2026 cut could become the most likely outcome if Canada-US trade talks go poorly. BMO adds that sustained oil-price declines would increase the case for cuts next year. BBH expects the BoC to keep two-way policy options and views market pricing of >50bps of tightening over 12 months as too high. RSM warns a persistent energy-price shock could force a BoC hike this autumn. Centurion says two consecutive quarters of GDP decline are unlikely to change the bank’s hawkish rhetoric aimed at anchoring inflation expectations.