Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar says markets fully price a 25bp ECB hike tonight, which he expects will be the only move in this tightening cycle. The next potential window is September when new ECB staff forecasts are released. In an upside scenario—conflict ends and oil trades near $80—need for another hike would diminish; in a downside scenario—conflict persists, oil nears $100 and Europe approaches or enters recession—the ECB would be unlikely to raise rates consecutively during a rec

Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar says markets fully price a 25bp ECB hike tonight, which he expects will be the only move in this tightening cycle. The next potential window is September when new ECB staff forecasts are released. In an upside scenario—conflict ends and oil trades near $80—need for another hike would diminish; in a downside scenario—conflict persists, oil nears $100 and Europe approaches or enters recession—the ECB would be unlikely to raise rates consecutively during a recession.