UBS says there is upside risk to its view that the ECB will raise rates only twice this year. UBS expects a 25bp hike on June 11 to 2.25%, in line with market pricing, and does not expect the ECB to consider a 50bp move necessary. Media reports that the ECB may have to "raise rates at least twice" imply a three-hike outcome; markets have partly priced that scenario (56.3bp by Dec 2026). UBS therefore acknowledges upside risk to its two-25bp-hike forecast. It expects the ECB is unlikely to send a

UBS says there is upside risk to its view that the ECB will raise rates only twice this year. UBS expects a 25bp hike on June 11 to 2.25%, in line with market pricing, and does not expect the ECB to consider a 50bp move necessary. Media reports that the ECB may have to "raise rates at least twice" imply a three-hike outcome; markets have partly priced that scenario (56.3bp by Dec 2026). UBS therefore acknowledges upside risk to its two-25bp-hike forecast. It expects the ECB is unlikely to send a strong signal for July; if the ECB signals a July hike, UBS will assess either bringing a September hike forward while keeping total hikes at two, or treating July as one of three hikes, and remains open to both outcomes.