All major dealers expect a 25bp ECB hike. Danske says its technical assumptions
(c.68bp) underpin two hikes this year. SEB expects a pre-emptive 25bp, will not
commit policy beyond June and will focus on forecast revisions and Middle East
risks. ING is hawkish, flags rising inflation risk and leaves the door open for
further tightening. ANZ sees 25bp in June and a further 25bp in September, not
the start of a large tightening cycle but wary of a bigger-than-expected energy
shock. Crédit Agricole expects 25bp, judges growth downside rising and
second‑round inflation limited, so the hike is dovish with limited euro upside.
Nordea expects 25bp and a relatively hawkish signal from Lagarde; it does not
expect a clear July hike signal but says updated forecasts will support further
tightening. MUFG expects 25bp, leaves option for more, projects +50bp this year
with July still possible. TD Securities expects 25bp and little change to the
statement, keeping a data‑dependent, meeting‑by‑meeting approach. OCBC expects a
precautionary 25bp, sees higher inflation expectations and slower growth; absent
new catalysts euro gains will be capped. DBS expects 25bp with a cautious but
hawkish tone; further H2 hikes remain possible and outlook depends on Middle
East developments. UBS expects 25bp, unlikely to signal July, with updated
forecasts showing some economic deterioration but not as severe as March’s
adverse scenario. Societe Generale expects 25bp from a neutral start and another
25bp in September; its forecasts may lift 2027 core inflation to ~2.5% while GDP
downside remains material. Berenberg warns a 25bp hike could be a mistake given
Iran‑driven energy shocks and weak domestic demand. Natixis sees a 25bp move
with a moderately dovish tone; assigns 35%/55% odds to a second hike in Jul–Sep
depending on Strait of Hormuz developments. Brown Brothers Harriman expects 25bp
and says weaker growth and downward revisions could push EUR/USD toward 1.14,
though downside is limited.
