OPEC monthly report maintained its 2027 non‑OPEC supply growth forecast at 620,000 bpd.

BMO analysts say some ECB governing council members are inclined to act and expect a rate hike at the June 11 meeting, with a risk of a follow-up increase as early as July. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, the RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA and NORWAY C.BANK have already tightened, and the ECB would be the first G7 central bank to move. Eurozone inflation has not eased since the last meeting; worries that the Iran conflict’s duration or a fragile peace could boost inflation expectations and wage pressures, alongside rising stagnation risk, are prompting a shift toward tightening. The ECB must tread carefully, but additional hikes remain possible.

ABN AMRO Bank said ECB President Lagarde has signaled June would be an appropriate time to assess the Iran conflict’s impact and update forecasts. April policy decisions and subsequent comments point to a high probability of a rate increase at the upcoming meeting. ABN AMRO expects the ECB to raise inflation forecasts, signal the possibility it may need to tighten further, and potentially follow with a 25bp hike in July. Despite a slowdown in euro-area growth, policymakers remain more concerned about inflation than activity. Markets have fully priced a June hike; attention will focus on the ECB’s updated forecasts and guidance on the post-meeting rate path.