The ECB on Thursday raised rates by 25bp to curb rising inf, its first hike
since September 2023. Euro-area inf accelerated to 3.2% in May amid the Iran
war, prompting the move. CITIGROUP analyst Arnaud Mares said: "The real focus of
this week's meeting is that communication may reveal future policy direction."
He expects another ECB hike at the July meeting. Traders view the ECB action as
a cue for U.S. policy; market-implied odds of at least one Fed hike by year-end
are about 66%.
