ECB sources said policymakers expect to pause rate hikes in July if energy prices remain unchanged.

Two sources said ECB policymakers expect to hold rates at the July 22 meeting if energy prices remain near current levels. The bank on Thursday delivered its first rate rise in nearly three years to curb inflation from fuel-cost increases linked to the Iran-related conflict. The sources said a July pause is currently more likely than another hike, unless energy prices jump sharply — one source said only a large oil rebound, with Brent above $100/bbl, would trigger a July hike. The other added an unexpected further rise in core inflation could change market expectations. Both noted ECB staff projections already assume two further rate hikes, so a July pause would not preclude additional tightening later, possibly in September.

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