CITIC Securities says the European Central Bank raised rates 25bps in June as expected, lowered growth forecasts for this year and next and raised inflation forecasts for both years. President Lagarde said the decision was unanimous and necessary, that the neutral rate was not discussed, and she expects inflation to return to target in H2 2027 while providing little forward guidance on the policy path. Derivatives markets price at least one more ECB hike this year, but CITIC expects the ECB will

CITIC Securities says the European Central Bank raised rates 25bps in June as expected, lowered growth forecasts for this year and next and raised inflation forecasts for both years. President Lagarde said the decision was unanimous and necessary, that the neutral rate was not discussed, and she expects inflation to return to target in H2 2027 while providing little forward guidance on the policy path. Derivatives markets price at least one more ECB hike this year, but CITIC expects the ECB will pause further tightening, sees limited room for further euro appreciation and says the dollar index should find support.