German government officials said there has been recent diplomatic progress on Iran.

ECB raised its three key policy rates by 25bps, the first increase in nearly three years. The bank sees inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028 (March: 2.6%, 2.0%, 2.1%); core inflation is projected at 2.5% in 2026–27 and 2.2% in 2028 (March: 2.3%, 2.2%, 2.1%). Growth forecasts were downgraded to 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028 (March: 0.9%, 1.3%, 1.4%). Policy will be decided meeting-by-meeting and remain data-dependent; no preset rate path or commitment on the neutral rate or neutral range. The ECB flagged the Middle East conflict as an upside inflation risk and said the hike is robust across scenarios; it warned the main risk is not hiking, which would make re-anchoring inflation harder. Market reaction: EUR/USD slightly firmer; eurozone yields marginally lower. At the press conference Lagarde said the decision was unanimous, not pre-emptive or aggressive but necessary; alternative options were not discussed. She noted an economic slowdown—especially in services—domestic demand weaker than in March, and an energy shock spreading through the economy. Inflation is broadening; energy-driven rises should push inflation above 2% in 1H 2027 before easing toward target in H2 2027. Short-term inflation expectations have risen while long-term expectations remain near target. No wage second-round effects observed; labour demand is cooling and wage growth is expected to moderate within a year, with labour-cost indicators pointing to easing in 2026. The Iran conflict is weighing on activity and is a downside growth risk; larger or more persistent energy-price shocks would push inflation higher and indirect costs are already emerging.

纽约期金日内跌幅达1.00%，现报4191.20美元/盎司。