ONS: UK GDP fell 0.1% MoM in April, matching economists' forecasts, with the
Iran war damping activity. April weakness followed an outsized March rebound
driven by consumer petrol stockpiling and manufacturers front‑loading production
ahead of expected energy-price pressure. Three-month rolling GDP to April rose
0.7% versus the prior three months, also in line with forecasts. Since late
February, attacks on energy infrastructure and a partial blockade of the Strait
of Hormuz have driven oil prices sharply higher. The weak April print raises
near-term political risk for Prime Minister Starmer ahead of next week's
by-election, where an Andy Burnham victory could trigger a leadership challenge.
