Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities says reopening the Strait of Hormuz will be slow; restoring flows to above 50% could take about a month. After the recent sharp oil-price pullback, he says price risks are clearly skewed to the upside because many things could still go wrong, while further downside is limited if events proceed as planned. Even if the political process advances, vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf will likely leave slowly and mine‑clearing will also take time.