Japan 5-year bond yield rose 2.5 bps to 1.890%.

A busy Asia-Pacific central bank week opens as the BANK OF JAPAN and the RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA hold policy meetings; markets will watch how authorities view Middle East risk after the recent US–Iran ceasefire. Markets largely price a BOJ rate hike as a done deal; focus is on the yen’s behaviour at intervention-risk levels. TD Securities says a hike alone is unlikely to support the yen — the BOJ would need more hawkish guidance, faster tightening and a higher terminal rate to stem yen weakness. The RBA is expected to pause after three consecutive hikes. Nomura says the RBA is unlikely to declare victory on inflation or provide meaningful forward guidance; any signs of weakening growth could pressure the AUD.

U.S. senior official says reopening the Strait of Hormuz will take time due to sea mines.