Morgan Stanley expects the oil market to return to surplus in 2027 and forecasts observable inventories will rise by about 2.4 mln bpd.

美国副总统万斯：伊朗将承诺不获取核武器。

Market widely expects the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate 25bp to 1.00%, the highest in 31 years; the previous hike was in Dec 2025. The governor is absent due to illness, leaving eight voters; a 4-4 split would hand the tie-breaking vote to the deputy governor presiding. Consensus is for broad support of a 25bp move, though re-flation hawk board member Asada may dissent and some officials could push for a 50bp increase. Markets will watch for any change to forward guidance; current wording reads, given real rates remain substantially low, the bank will continue to raise rates and adjust the degree of easing. Japanese media report the BOJ plans to stop tapering monthly bond purchases from April next year — a step that could be seen as a political compromise with the government and that may affect BOJ independence, liquidity and the yield curve. Deputy Governor Uchida will lead the post-meeting press conference; investors will look for signals on a possible consecutive July hike and the outlook for bond-purchase policy.