HSBC analysts said oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to normalize before end-July and may not return to pre-conflict levels until end-September. Key obstacles include clearing sea mines, restoring insurance, drawing down excess Gulf oil inventories, redeploying vessels, and restarting idled producing fields and downstream infrastructure. HSBC expects Saudi Arabia and the UAE to recover relatively quickly, while other producers will need months rather than weeks. In a partia

HSBC analysts said oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to normalize before end-July and may not return to pre-conflict levels until end-September. Key obstacles include clearing sea mines, restoring insurance, drawing down excess Gulf oil inventories, redeploying vessels, and restarting idled producing fields and downstream infrastructure. HSBC expects Saudi Arabia and the UAE to recover relatively quickly, while other producers will need months rather than weeks. In a partial-reopening scenario where Iran retains influence via the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority", supply could recover to only about 60% of pre-conflict volumes, which would keep the oil market in deficit through 2027.