A Moscow refinery suspended operations after a Ukrainian drone strike on June 16, sources said.

Trump reiterated that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons.

Morgan Stanley sharply cut near-term oil forecasts in a June 15 report, citing a tentative US‑Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that should restore regional output and add supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats now see Brent crude averaging $90/bbl in Q3 (prior $100) and $80/bbl in Q4 (down $15). They say expected timing for Middle East output restoration has moved up one to two weeks, with gradual recovery from mid‑July, roughly 50% by September, 80% by December and the remainder by early 2027; many issues and key risks remain.