UBS: Insufficient clarity on Woshe’s policy stance and reaction function; either
a hawkish or dovish tilt could create market pricing risk. ANZ: Woshe appears
intent on reforms; the press conference may outline reform ideas, with fuller
detail likely at the Jackson Hole opening speech in August. BofA: Expects a
dovish tone — Woshe may argue the Iran conflict only causes a one-off effect on
price levels and should be ‘ignored’ by the Fed, especially after reports of
potential resolutions. Capital Economics: Markets risk a more
hawkish-than-expected delivery, whether from communication error or because his
current stance is less dovish than when courting Trump’s nomination. Yale: Warns
that overreliance on soft arguments like an ‘AI disinflation’ thesis while
sidelining hard data risks repeating a ‘transitory inflation’ mistake. Nordea:
Expects a neutral-to-slightly-hawkish posture to build credibility; any
communication shift would be signaling rather than immediate policy action. BNY
Mellon: Woshe has criticized forward guidance and may use the press conference —
or limit future appearances — to signal changes to Fed communication under his
tenure. MFS: Given his views on tech-driven productivity, dovish comments are
possible but unlikely, since they would undermine a hawkish image.
