美国总统特朗普：关于核库存的技术性讨论将会立即开始。

CITIC Securities says global economic resilience is being tested by the Middle East conflict; H2 will be dominated by coexisting supply shocks, policy constraints and investment support, with the persistence of oil-price shocks the primary variable for the global macro path. For China, policymakers are likely to shift H2 focus toward structural reform—curbing domestic over-competition (anti-involution) and enforcing carbon assessments to optimize supply, while using fiscal and tax reform to steer demand. In China’s A-share market, AI plus energy/chemicals form a new barbell. Investment stance: keep a global lens on China and adopt K-shaped positioning rather than simple bull/bear views; move from “building AI” to “adapting to AI” in technology exposure. The long-term investment case remains a re-rating of China’s advantaged manufacturing pricing power; priority sectors are new energy, chemicals, nonferrous metals and power equipment. On the offensive side, monitor domestic AI progress and overweight the domestic compute chain and cloud platforms. Continue selective overweight of low-valuation names, notably brokers and insurers.

现货白银日内涨超1.00%，现报68.62美元/盎司。