Nearly half of Federal Reserve policymakers no longer believe that holding borrowing costs steady would be sufficient to bring inflation back to 2% if oil prices spike after a war involving Iran. The Fed's latest dot plot shows views on the rate path shifting from how long to hold rates before cuts to growing concern about the need for additional hikes; some officials now expect rate increases. Wednesday's projections revised inflation sharply higher since March: median PCE YoY is now seen at 3.

Nearly half of Federal Reserve policymakers no longer believe that holding borrowing costs steady would be sufficient to bring inflation back to 2% if oil prices spike after a war involving Iran. The Fed's latest dot plot shows views on the rate path shifting from how long to hold rates before cuts to growing concern about the need for additional hikes; some officials now expect rate increases. Wednesday's projections revised inflation sharply higher since March: median PCE YoY is now seen at 3.6% by year-end (March: 2.7%), median core PCE YoY at 3.3% (March: 2.7%). Median year-end unemployment is 4.3% — matching May's reading and below March's 4.4% — indicating policymakers increasingly see the labor market as not weakening and reducing the case for rate cuts.