According to the Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first press conference was slightly shorter than usual.

The Trump administration announced it will transfer core functions of the U.S. Department of Education to other federal agencies, moving the Office of Special Education and Rehabilitative Services to the Department of Health and Human Services and shifting the Office for Civil Rights' investigative and enforcement work to the Department of Justice. The administration has already moved some K-12, higher education and career-technical programs to the Department of Labor under interagency agreements and has initiated a process to transfer a $1.7 trillion federal student loan portfolio to the U.S. Treasury.

Major banks and asset managers expect the Fed’s SEP/dot plot to skew hawkish: most forecast upward revisions to inflation and fewer or later rate cuts, with the SEP itself trimmed in detail. UBS sees higher inflation forecasts and a view that most officials do not favor cuts before 2028; the median may still show a single 2028 cut but policy will remain restrictive. Goldman expects Wosh may not submit a personal dot; the median likely shows rates unchanged through 2026 with one cut each in 2027 and 2028, while 2026 GDP and unemployment are tweaked down slightly and inflation is revised materially higher. Barclays expects no 2026 cuts, only one cut in 2027 and a cautious 2028 outlook. Jefferies flags a policy-shift in communications — Wosh’s rejection of forward guidance at his Senate hearing points to a shorter FOMC statement and a leaner SEP. Several houses (BofA, TD Securities, Capital Economics) predict Wosh will not submit a personal forecast to blunt hawkish signals; JPMorgan alone expects he will submit one to avoid appearing in dissent. Other houses (Rabobank, Nordea, BNY Mellon, PIMCO) put the risk on stickier inflation, fewer cuts or even renewed hawkish calls, with some forecasting the dot plot will drop prior in‑year cut scenarios and skew modestly hawkish.