China International Capital Co said in a research note the Fed left rates unchanged at the June meeting and significantly simplified its policy statement, removing forward guidance to reduce Fed-market intervention. The Fed established five working groups—communications, balance sheet, data, productivity and labor, and inflation framework—with the balance-sheet review ranked second, signalling balance-sheet reduction (QT) remains a core tilt. Fed leadership offered no explicit guidance, but the

China International Capital Co said in a research note the Fed left rates unchanged at the June meeting and significantly simplified its policy statement, removing forward guidance to reduce Fed-market intervention. The Fed established five working groups—communications, balance sheet, data, productivity and labor, and inflation framework—with the balance-sheet review ranked second, signalling balance-sheet reduction (QT) remains a core tilt. Fed leadership offered no explicit guidance, but the dot plot shifted hawkish: the mean projects one rate hike this year, reflecting firmer employment and persistent inflation and an anti-inflation focus. China International Capital Co maintains its view that the Fed will neither hike nor cut rates this year but warns the risk of a hike next year has risen; sustained US growth driven by AI-led capex and a broad recovery could prompt monetary tightening.