Huatai Securities notes the Fed left the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% and the dot plot signals potential precautionary hikes in 2026. Fed remarks at the press conference on forward guidance and operating practices were broadly unchanged, and the Fed announced five working groups, including one on monetary policy communication, as part of its reform push. Huatai maintains that the Fed will keep rates unchanged before September, assigns roughly a 50% probability of a December hike, and sees the possi

Huatai Securities notes the Fed left the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% and the dot plot signals potential precautionary hikes in 2026. Fed remarks at the press conference on forward guidance and operating practices were broadly unchanged, and the Fed announced five working groups, including one on monetary policy communication, as part of its reform push. Huatai maintains that the Fed will keep rates unchanged before September, assigns roughly a 50% probability of a December hike, and sees the possibility of two cumulative hikes by the end of next year.