CITIC Securities says the Fed left policy rates unchanged at the June 2026
meeting, in line with expectations. New Fed Chair Wash shortened the statement
and removed forward guidance, urging markets to price on incoming economic data
rather than a Fed-provided path while noting data are lagging. The market
reaction reflected a hawkish dot‑plot shock plus rising uncertainty that
unanchored expectations. With US‑Iran nearing a memorandum that should ease
geopolitically driven energy and inflation pressure, and Wash facing White House
political constraints, CITIC leans Wash will not support a rate hike this year;
the roughly 50-50 FOMC split is likely to converge toward the chair. CITIC
therefore maintains its call for the Fed to hold policy rates unchanged through
the year.
