美国气候预测中心（CPC）：预计此次厄尔尼诺事件在7-8-9月期间发展为强厄尔尼诺事件的几率超过40%。

WTI crude fell 2.00% intraday to $74.24/bbl.

Analyst Marte said this week's Fed meeting is Wash's first major credibility test as Fed chair; investors, policymakers and the public are watching whether he will defend the Fed's political independence. Trump has publicly urged independence on rate-setting but continues to signal a preference for lower borrowing costs. Some investors warn that if Wash fails to send a strong inflation signal he risks losing control of the bond market. April CPI rose 4.2% YoY, the fastest in over three years. Any impression the new chair intends to alter the Fed's 2% inflation target could push yields higher and further restrain the economy, running counter to Trump's objectives. A US–Iran peace deal could ease some fuel-price pressure, but pass-through to consumers would likely be delayed.