NOAA's Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of a very strong El Niño by 2027
at about 63%. Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen said a 'super El Niño'
could raise regional temperatures, drive spikes in electricity demand, cut crop
yields and rekindle inflationary pressure, complicating central-bank outlooks
and posing downside risk to global equities near record levels. Hansen added the
timing is sensitive because markets are still adjusting to inflation effects
from the US‑Iran conflict and supply chains remain fragile after months of
disruption. Market-sensitive sectors include agriculture, energy, utilities and
insurance, with direct implications for inflation, policy guidance, liquidity
and sector positioning.
