Morgan Stanley CIO and head US equity strategist Mike Wilson said liquidity, not rate hikes, is the primary near-term risk for US equities. He noted reserve-management programs are about 75% smaller than their peak and Treasury repo volumes have fallen roughly 50%, tightening market liquidity. Accelerating loan growth is worsening the squeeze as the real economy absorbs more capital while balance-sheet support recedes. Wilson expects US equities to be volatile in July and possibly pull back; a n

Morgan Stanley CIO and head US equity strategist Mike Wilson said liquidity, not rate hikes, is the primary near-term risk for US equities. He noted reserve-management programs are about 75% smaller than their peak and Treasury repo volumes have fallen roughly 50%, tightening market liquidity. Accelerating loan growth is worsening the squeeze as the real economy absorbs more capital while balance-sheet support recedes. Wilson expects US equities to be volatile in July and possibly pull back; a next earnings-driven leg up may be delayed until liquidity headwinds ease. He said last week's FOMC under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was a necessary step to rebuild Fed credibility and that the S&P 500/gold ratio has risen about 40% since Warsh's February nomination, signaling market confidence. Wilson backed Warsh's move to reduce heavy forward guidance, saying markets should react to incoming data rather than try to pre-empt Fed remarks.